French experts predict spike in Covid hospitalisations in March

Scientists at a leading French medical research body predict that by early March the UK variant of the coronavirus will be the most prevalent in France and could cause a new spike in infection and hospitalisation rates.

Covid patient in hospital AP - Daniel Cole

Experts at Inserm say transmission of the original virus is slowing but a more contagious strain of the virus first detected in the UK is now spreading more rapidly.

However, the school holidays, social distancing measures and the curfew and test and trace systems could help delay the rise in cases, according to Vittoria Colizza of Inserm.

An expected explosion of new cases earlier this year has so far not materialised, but authorities in France remain wary, one month after the introduction of a 6pm nationwide curfew and weeks after President Macron ruled out another lockdown.

25,000 hospitalisations weekly

But the spread of the new variants, could lead to a spike in hospitalisations, with Inserm estimates predicting up to 25,000 new admissions per week by the end of March – figures not seen since the peak of the second wave.

There are currently 26,185 Covid patients in hospital in France, including 3,358 who are being treated in resuscitation units.

Weekly figures released on Tuesday show an average of 18,000 new cases per day over the last week, slightly lower than the 20,000 average posted on 2 February for the previous week.

More genetic sequencing needed

In the northern town of Dunkirk, hospitals are coming under particular strain due to the prevalence of cases of the UK variant. A testing campaign is underway and extra vaccines have been sent to the region.

There is also an urgent need for more genetic sequencing so that new strains can be better identified and mapped, according to Geneticist Philippe Froguel of Lille University. France is just as capable as the UK or the US of doing such sequencing, he told AFP.

Just over 3.1 million people in France have so far received at least one dose of vaccine, including 815,000 who have now had both doses.