Global warming likely to breach 1.5C for first time 'within next five years'

The global temperature is set to break the critical temperature limit of 1.5C within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned.

A firefighter stands on a road leading to houses threatened by a wildfire in Saumos near Bordeaux, southwestern France, on September 12, 2022. AFP - PHILIPPE LOPEZ

Researchers say there's now a 66 percent chance the planet will pass that warming threshold between now and 2027 – for the first time in human history.

Last year's report put those odds at 50 percent.

The WMO also said there was a 98 percent chance the record for the hottest year ever would be broken during that time.

The hottest eight years ever recorded were all between 2015 and 2022, but temperatures are forecast to increase further as climate change accelerates.

El Nino factor

The chances of hitting 1.5C were boosted by a warming El Niño global weather event that is expected to develop by the end of the summer.

A natural weather pattern tied to intense heat and drought, El Nino last occurred in 2018-2019.

El Nino would  "combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory", WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas said.

Nearly every country in the world has committed to limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in a bid to mitigate the dangerous impacts of climate change, like floods, rising sea levels and droughts.

• Outrage after Macron urges 'pause' on EU environment regulations
• Climate activists mark Earth Day as global temperatures hit record high

Not permanent

Breaching 1.5C, while alarming, would not mean the world had permanently surpassed the threshold, scientists say.

The global average temperature would need to exceed 1.5C many more times before the climate can be said to have permanently warmed to that level.

Experts agree that emissions must be halved by 2030 if the world is to cap warming at 1.5C. 

They also say countries have been too slow to make the transformational change needed to bring down emissions, such as phasing out fossil fuels.