With elections behind them, leaders of Greece and Turkey look to reset relations

Historic rivals Greece and Turkey look closer to a rapprochement as their leaders step up efforts to improve ties after receiving strong election mandates this year. Foreign ministers from the two neighbours are set to meet on Monday, but analysts warn substantial obstacles still need to be overcome.

Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis shakes hands with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Nato summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on 12 July 2023. © Dimitris Papamitsos/Greek Prime Minister's Office via AP

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's landslide victory in June elections is seen as allowing him to pursue his long-term goal of rapprochement with Turkey. 

"I wouldn't call it his secret agenda, but he did want that – the amelioration of relations – and that is something that goes back since the beginning of this century when I first met him," claims Alexis Heraclides, a professor of international relations at Panteion University in Athens.

Leaders of the two countries met on the sidelines of the Nato summit in Vilnius in July, pledging to work towards improving ties. This Monday the Greek foreign minister, Giorgos Gerapetritis, is scheduled to travel to Turkey to meet his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in the latest effort at rapprochement.

Mitsotakis appointed Gerapetritis after his election victory, replacing Nikos Dendias, a hawk in Turkish-Greek relations, notes Heraclides. 

"The fact that [Mitsotakis] was able to get this victory sort of unties his hands," he said. "Previously he had little leeway, since his foreign minister [Dendias], his head of the army and others are very much hardliners.

"So this is an almost golden opportunity to do his thing, to take matters into his hands."

Change of tone

After his re-election in May, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also replaced his foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu. Newly appointed Hakan Fidan is widely regarded as a skilled diplomat.

With elections behind him the Turkish president can tone down his nationalist rhetoric, which is popular with his electoral base, and be more receptive to Greek overtures, says Huseyin Bagci, head of the Foreign Policy Institute, an Ankara-based research organisation.

"The new government, of course, will be much more cooperative," Bagci predicts. "I think the non-solvable issues will continue, but the rhetoric will be much more [toned] down.

"I do expect that both sides will try to find common ground... Both leaders seem to be trying to work together. And this is time for cooperation, not confrontation," he added.

Maritime flashpoints

The Aegean and Mediterranean Seas remain flashpoints for the Greek and Turkish navies as both countries search for what are believed to be significant energy reserves in disputed waters.

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At the same time, the island of Cyprus, divided between Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities, continues to be a potential source of tension. 

The flags of Greece, Cyprus, Turkey and the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus fly above security outposts in the divided Cypriot capital Nicosia. © AFP

But analysts say improving bilateral ties could help Turkey achieve one of its military goals: buying American-made jets.

Turkey is seeking to acquire F-16 fighter jets from the United States. Last year the Greek prime minister urged the US Congress to block the sale, and the deal has been delayed in part over Washington's concerns about tensions between the two Nato allies. 

'Honeymoon period'

But given the history of failed attempts, observers question how long the latest efforts to improve ties will last.

"You see these wonderful pictures coming out, everyone smiling in nice photo ops," observes Mediterranean security analyst Aya Burweila. 

"I think in three months, six months, we'll see if people are going to go back to their baseline," she said.

"It's like in a horrible marriage – there's a little honeymoon period, and then everybody goes back to who they really are." 

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But there remain hopeful signs. Greek and Turkish leaders refrained from angry rhetoric despite the recent flare-up of tensions in Cyprus over the construction of a road in contested territory, as well as the announcement that Turkey plans to drill for new energy sources in the Mediterranean.

Mitsotakis and Erdogan are expected to meet on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in October, with a summit between the two leaders in Greece on the cards later this year.