As Azerbaijan and Turkey join forces, fears of Armenia conflict grow

Fears are growing of a conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia as Baku ratchets up its rhetoric against Yerevan, reiterating calls for a corridor through Armenian territory. The move comes as Azerbaijani forces prepare joint military exercises with Turkey, which backs the idea of the passage.

Vehicles of Russian peacekeepers leaving Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region for Armenia pass an Armenian checkpoint on a road near the village of Kornidzor, Armenia, on September 22, 2023. © REUTERS / IRAKLI GEDENIDZE

Turkish and Azerbaijani forces are to hold three days of military exercises next week across Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, an Azeri enclave that borders Turkey.

Baku and Ankara are calling for a 40km corridor through Armenia to connect the Azeri territories. The passage, dubbed the Zangezur corridor, would also create a land route between Turkey and Azerbaijan, a long-term goal of the two allies.

"God willing, we will implement the Zangezur corridor as soon as possible and thereby make our land road and railroad connection with friendly and brotherly Azerbaijan uninterrupted over Nakhchivan," said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a ceremony with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilhan Aliyev in Nakhchivan last month.

Yerevan is strongly opposed to the corridor, but Baku insists it will not use force to achieve its goal.

"Azerbaijan doesn't have any military goals or objectives on the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia," said Hikmet Hajiyev, a foreign policy advisor to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in a recent interview with Reuters news agency.

But the Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercise is interpreted as a strategy to put pressure on Yerevan, suggesting a conflict could be looming.

"Turkey does not necessarily want a militarised solution, but the nature of the relationship between Azerbaijan and Turkey and between President Aliyev and President Erdogan is more or less a blank cheque," said Asli Aydintasbas, an analyst with the US-based Brookings Institution.

She believes that the Turkish government would prefer to establish a trade route by peaceful means, "but if Azerbaijan chooses to do it through military means, it does seem like it can count on Turkish support".

Nagorno-Karabakh

The prospect of conflict comes as Yerevan is still reeling from Azerbaijan recapturing the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave held by ethnic Armenians.

Despite over 100,000 residents fleeing to Armenia, Yerevan is trying to secure a peace agreement with Baku, which the Armenian government sees as vital to its long-term goal of breaking away from Russian influence.

"You know, the economy's moving in the right direction. The Western pivot is moving in the right direction. Democratisation is moving in the right direction. The only thing interfering with that is the threat of war," says Armenian political analyst Eric Hacopian.

"So you take away the threat of war, all of this becomes easier, and any kind of a peaceful situation will quicken and hasten the de-Russification of Armenian politics, economy and other things – and by the way, it has broad popular support."

However an opportunity for a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia brokered by the European Union at a summit in Spain this month fell victim to diplomatic infighting between EU leaders and Turkey.

"The Azeris said that Turkey ought to be in the talks. The Germans and the French said Turkey cannot be in the talks," says Soli Ozel, professor of international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

"You really wonder which world they're living in. I would have expected that the Europeans, particularly the French, would work with Turkey and get Azerbaijan and Armenia out of the orbit of Russia."

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Russian tactics

Since the failed EU peace effort, Baku has been hardening its stance against Yerevan. Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry accused Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of undermining the peace process with "aggressive rhetoric".

Baku's harsh language comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Azerbaijan President Aliyev to a regional summit in Kyrgyzstan. Experts suspect Putin is using centuries-old Russian diplomatic tactics to maintain hegemony in the region.

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"Russia was always playing on these contradictions and mutual dissatisfaction," says Russian expert Tatiana Mitrova, a visiting professor at the Paris School of International Affairs.

"It is a typical divide-and-rule policy starting from Czarist Russia before the Soviet Union, so it has very, very long historical roots. Moreover, I would say my impression is that these days Moscow would do everything to create instability everywhere."

US 'distracted'

With growing international turmoil, Baku could be eyeing an opportunity to pursue its agenda.

"Washington is too distracted right now to think about the Caucasus," predicts analyst Aydintasbas, noting the ongoing war in Ukraine, domestic political turmoil and the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

"The US has long prided itself on being able to chew gum and walk, but at this moment, the geopolitical pressures, whether it's Taiwan or Ukraine or the Middle East, are so crushing that there is a sense that they do not have the bandwidth to deal with other regional issues."

Baku insists it is not seeking another conflict with Armenia. But analysts warn Armenia's pro-Western government would likely be at risk if it suffered a further military defeat to a Turkey-backed Azerbaijan attack.

And Putin would probably welcome such an outcome as he seeks to maintain his grip on the Caucasus.